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ACI projects 14 percent increase in payment fraud attempts over the holidays

November 19, 2018

Attempted payment fraud will jump approximately 14 percent this holiday season, according to benchmark data from ACI Worldwide, a provider of electronic payment and banking solutions.

The data, drawn from hundreds of millions of merchant transactions, also indicates that fraud attempts are likely to peak on Thanksgiving Day, an ACI press release said.

"Fraudsters prepare for peak holiday season just as much as merchants and consumers do," Erika Dietrich, global director for payments risk at ACI, said in the press release. "By anticipating the increase in fraud during the holiday shopping season, and being aware of where fraudsters may be lurking, consumers and merchants can get ahead of fraudulent activity and protect themselves." 

Year-over-year findings from the data include: 

Between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday

• Purchase volume is expected to increase 18 percent; value is expected to increase 19 percent.
• Attempted fraud volume is projected to increase 14 percent; value is expected to increase 17 percent.
• Average ticket price for attempted fraud is expected to increase 3 percent from $236 to $243.

On Thanksgiving Day

• Volume of transactions is expected to increase 23 percent. 
• Volume of fraud attempts is expected to reach a record high of 1.8 percent.

On Black Friday

• Volume of transactions is expected to increase 19 percent.
• Volume of fraud attempts is expected to be 1.3 percent.

On Cyber Monday

• Volume of transactions is expected to increase 14 percent.
• Volume of fraud attempts is expected to be 0.93 percent.

The data indicate that fraud overall will increase at a lower rate this year than in the past, due to the use of EMV technology, the release said. However, the release said, the ticket price for attempted fraud is being driven up by the popularity of big-ticket items such as smartphones, TVs and other electronics.