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RBR Study: Newer ATM markets the most dynamic, becoming the largest

Asia-Pacific accounted for 40 percent of the world's 2.8 million ATMs at the end of 2013, RBR says in 'Global ATM Market and Forecasts to 2019.'

March 6, 2015

Asia-Pacific is home to many of the world's youngest and fastest growing markets, and China now has the largest ATM installed base, having surpassed the USA in 2013, according to the new RBR report, 'Global ATM Market and Forecasts to 2019.' Growth in the Chinese market during the year was largely driven by the country's "Big Four" banks, whose large customer bases necessitate an extensive ATM footprint.

The Middle East and Africa is the second-fastest growing region, and has the distinction of being the only region in which all of the countries surveyed saw an increase in ATM numbers in 2013. In Russia — where the first ATMs were not installed until the early 1990s — the base continues to grow strongly, far outstripping other countries in central and eastern Europe as Russian banks bring ATMs.

One important emerging market whose growth has slowed over the last few years is Brazil, where banks are now turning to the shared Banco24Horas network as an alternative to increased off-site deployment. Elsewhere in the region, four of Latin America's seven major markets grew by 5 percent or more in 2013.

On the other hand, more than half of the 20 major markets in North America and western Europe contracted in 2013. The only notable exception to sluggish growth in these two regions is Turkey, the youngest of western Europe's major ATM markets; much of the growth here came from state-owned banks, as these began to replicate the private banks' recent expansion.

ATM siting hinges on profitability, convenience, security

Off-site ATMs make up almost half of the global installed base, although their share declined slightly in 2013. In some countries, high off-site shares can be attributed to the presence of independent ATM deployers; this is the case in the U.S. and the U.K., which have well‑developed IAD sectors.

Overall, IAD machines make up 16 percent of the global installed base. The lifting in 2013 of India's ban on non-bank ATMs is expected to be a major driver of growth in that nation's installed base over the next few years.

Globally, the lobby was the only location type to see its share rise in 2013; one reason for this is the increasing implementation of automated deposit technology, as lobby ATMs offer the convenience of extended-hours availability, with transactions in a secure branch-like environment.

Growth patterns will vary widely over the forecast period. Several Asia-Pacific and MEA countries will see double-digit annual growth rates, while a small number of markets — primarily in western Europe — will contract.

Asia-Pacific to account for majority of global ATM base by 2019

The Nigerian market will almost treble in size between 2013 and 2019, as banks ramp up levels of off-site deployment to compete for a share of the increasing transaction volumes. Other major MEA markets, will experience strong growth as well, driven by both customer demand and government requirements.

RBR forecast growth of installed bases in almost all CEE and Latin American countries, though at a fairly slow rate. The availability of low-cost ATMs will help boost CEE installations as Latin American deployers expand their fleets to meet demand from newly banked customers.

Deployers in the majority of markets remain cautiously optimistic about the potential for further growth, with possible inhibitors — particularly cost-related factors — continuing to weigh on ATM strategies. Nevertheless, the global installed base is forecast to increase to almost four million ATMs by 2019. Even in the few countries where a decline in numbers is expected, this is likely to occur slowly and possibly even reverse in the latter years of the forecast period, RBR said.