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Consumers in mature markets will own 3-4 devices by 2018

Gartner Inc. says that the increased use and ownership of multiple devices will drive further innovation in UI technologies.

December 11, 2015

During the next five years, consumers will add more digital devices to their personal portfolio rather than consolidating it. And within two years, a consumer in a mature market will use and own more than three personal devices, according to a press release from Gartner.

Gartner estimates that in 2016, the installed base of devices will total 7.8 billion units (including wearables, phones, tablets and PCs) and is on pace to reach 8.3 billion units in 2018. 

"The combination of the high level of adoption of technology, the availability of faster networks, and decision-making becoming increasingly dependent on real-time information, will undoubtedly lead to more devices per user," said Gartner Research Director Anshul Gupta. 

Gartner expects mature market users to use three to four personal devices from a mix of "main" and "niche" devices. Main devices will include smartphones, tablets, convertibles (two-in-one devices) and notebooks, and will contribute to more than two devices per person at any time. Niche devices will include a growing range of wearables such as smart watches, health bands, smart glasses and new types of connected devices such as smart cards, e-readers and portable cameras. 

Gartner has made several more predictions for the personal device market, including: 

• By 2019, 20 percent of personal devices will record emotions used to create individual responses or crowdsourced analysis by the system.

"With wearables recording heart rates, blood pressure, sleep patterns and steps taken, emotions are the next frontier for personal devices," said Annette Zimmermann, Research Director at Gartner.

• More than 740 million wearables will be in use in 2016 — up 20 percent from 2015 — and will reach 1.1 billion units by 2019. 

Emotions can be measured using a combination of different sensors, including sound recording, or human emotions could be captured and analyzed by recording facial expressions via video or a still camera.

"Organizations will be able to translate voice analysis into training tools for customer service employees, and smartphones will be able to analyze conversations and provide feedback on how to improve client interactions," Zimmermann said in the release. 

• By 2019, one-third of PC users will use speech or gestures to issue commands.

With the recent introduction of 3D cameras on desktop and notebook PCs — together with the Windows 10 personal assistant feature — gesture and voice are set to boost existing keyboard and touch functions. 

• By 2019, more than 60 percent of total PC installed base will be on Windows 10.

"If at least half of Windows 10 users opt for voice or gesture to give commands, that will make 30 percent of the installed base using this function," Lillian Tay, principal research analyst at Gartner, said in the release.