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Europol predicts major changes in criminal landscape

'Criminal entrepreneurs' will come together on a project basis, lending their expertise as part of a 'crime-as-a-service' business model, the report finds.

March 10, 2015

Europol's newly released report "Exploring tomorrow's organized crime," identifies a series of factors that will shape the future landscape of serious and organized crime in Europe, a press release from the organization said.

Among the report's findings: A decline of traditional hierarchical criminal groups and networks will be accompanied by the expansion of a virtual criminal underground made up of individual criminal entrepreneurs, who come together on a project basis. These people will lend their knowledge, experience and expertise as part of a 'crime-as-a-service' business model, the release said.

The report also looks at how law enforcement authorities might counter and contain organized crime activities over the coming years.

"Organized crime is dynamic and adaptable and law enforcement authorities across the EU are challenged to keep pace with the changing nature of this substantial and significant threat," said Europol Director Rob Wainwright. "This report — the first of its kind for Europol — will enable us to look ahead and better allocate resources, plan operational activities and engage with policy- and lawmakers to prevent certain types of crimes from emerging."

The report finds that virtual currencies increasingly enable individuals to act as freelance criminal entrepreneurs operating on a crime-as-a-service business model without the need for a sophisticated criminal infrastructure to receive and launder money.

Additionally, the report said, the increasing exploitation of Big Data and personal data will enable criminal groups to carry out complex and sophisticated identity frauds on previously unprecedented levels.

The report is the outcome of Europol experts' engagement with other experts from the private and public sectors, academia and partners in the European law enforcement community.

Read the full report.