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Study: Mobile payments set for dramatic growth

The gross dollar volume of U.S. mobile payments is estimated to grow 68 percent between 2010 and 2015.

December 16, 2010

The gross dollar volume of U.S. mobile payments is estimated to grow 68 percent between 2010 and 2015, but the mobile payments will continue to represent only a "tiny portion" of U.S. consumer spending for many years, according to a study released by Aite Group LLC, a Boston-based independent research and advisory firm.

In five years, the gross dollar volume of mobile payments is estimated to reach $214 billion, up from the estimated $16 billion currently, Gwenn Bezard, Aite Group research director, said in his report, "U.S. Mobile Payments: The time has come." Bezard defines mobile payments as any payment initiated by a mobile device. For Aite's study, the company interviewed 60 stakeholders in September and October.

Aite studied 10 mobile payment categories. They are: mobile bill payment, mobile point of sale, M-commerce, mobile contactless, domestic mobile person-to-person, mobile phone billing, closed-loop mobile payments, mobile coupons, mobile top-up and cross-border mobile or person-to-person.

Mobile bill payment, which involves the initiation of a consumer bill payment over a mobile phone, is predicted to be the largest category, reaching a gross dollar volume of $82 billion by 2015.

Mobile point-of-sale, which allows consumers to turn their smartphones into a point-of-sale device, is predicted to be the second-largest category. Gross dollar volume in this category is estimated to reach $54 billion in five years.

The two leaders are followed in order of gross dollar volume by M-Commerce, mobile contactless, domestic mobile person-to-person, mobile phone billing, closed loop mobile payments, mobile coupons, mobile top-up and cross-border mobile person-to-person, Bezard said.

Mobile bill payments' predicted leadership represents a shift in the mobile payments industry. "Five years ago, it was about prepaid mobile top-up, which controlled 86.5 percent of the gross dollar volume of mobile payments. In contrast, mobile bill payment accounted for 1 percent of the gross dollar volume of U.S. mobile payments," Bezard said.

This year, mobile bill payment is represents 59.4 percent of the gross dollar volume of U.S. mobile payments, followed by M-Commerce at 18.1 percent, domestic mobile person-to-person at 10 percent, and mobile point-of-sale at 5.7 percent. M-Commerce is the purchase of physical, digital goods and services.

By 2015, mobile bill payment will control 38.3 percent of the gross dollar volume of U.S. mobile payments, followed by mobile point-of-sale, which is predicted to represent 25.6 percent of the gross dollar volume, Bezard said. Although mobile bill payment and mobile point-of-sale are expected to control the major share of U.S. mobile payments' gross dollar volume in five years, they surprisingly are not the fastest-growing categories.

 Mobile contactless is expected to grow 1,077 percent between now and 2015, followed by mobile point-of-sale, which is predicted to grow 127 percent in gross dollar volume in five years, Bezard said. Mobile contractless involves established card network payments initiated by a contactless chip that is embedded by the manufacturer into a mobile handset. This would be provided in a MicroSD card format or a sticker attached to the back of a handset, Bezard said. The card networks are Visa, MasterCard, American Express and Discover.

Aite said mobile contactless adoption has been sluggish in the United States, but that is expected to change in 2011 as handset manufacturers roll out near field communication-equipped mobile phones. With near field communication, smart phone owners would hold their phone near a contactless point-of-sale payment terminal to complete a purchase.

Bezard urged major card networks and banks to move away from MicroSD initiatives and "piggyback on handset makers and carriers' adoption of the near field communication."