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Tom Harper's Ten Predictions for the ATM Industry

November 9, 2000

The following predictions are based purely on gut feeling, conjecture, interviews with industry professionals and occasional far-out thinking.

These are ranked in no particular order:

1. There will be 300,000 ATMs by the year 2000; two-thirds will be off-premise.

2. Based on my research there are over 400 ISOs and deployers currently operating networks of ATMs. This number will double before consolidation hits. Banks will continue to subsidize ISOs and launch their own private ATM companies.

3. Onscreen and coupon advertising revenue will dwarf surcharge revenue in five years.

4. Surcharging will be turned upside down when large national banks dump it in lieu of "no surcharge here" marketing campaigns rolling out in late 1998. After they lose millions on their attempts to woo customers, they'll be forced to reinstate a surcharge or sell advertising to pay for their fat networks.

5. Baby boomers will fuel ATM growth as they retire and travel more.

6. Alternative media dispensing will flounder. Stamps may hang around, but cash will always be the hottest seller at ATMs.

7. Unbanked people will flock to check-cashing, EBT and ALM machines in addition to plain old CDs. They'll also start paying bills at the machine (this will take a while to catch on, however.)

8. Smart cards are still ten years away; they'll boost the ATM industry because of all the hardware upgrades needed for card refilling.

9. The ATM will evolve as low-end manufacturers, kiosk deployers, banks, advertisers and smart card deployers mix and mingle their products and goals. An ATM/kiosk hybrid will emerge to replace ATMs as we know them.

10. Banks will ultimately control the ATM industry again.