China will become the world’s largest ATM market by 2015, surpassing the United States, predicts Retail Banking Research Ltd., a London-based strategic research and consulting firm.

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China, which had 210,000 ATMs at the end of 2009, will have 545,000 ATMs in six years. This represents a total growth of 160 percent, says Andrei Charniauski, project manager for Retail Banking Research’s global ATM research. China is forecast to add 335,000 ATMs.

In contrast, the United States, which had 420,000 ATMs at the end of 2009, will have 435,000 ATMs by 2015, which represents a 4 percent rate of growth, Charniauski says. The United States is expected to add 15,000 ATMs.

Information about China becoming the world’s largest ATM market is contained in Retail Banking Research’s biennial ATM survey, “Global ATM Market and Forecasts to 2015.” The 170-country report found that in 2009 the global financial crisis slowed deployment of ATMs, but only slightly. Last year there were approximately 2.1 million ATMs worldwide, up from approximately 1.9 million in 2008. By 2015, Retail Banking Research predicts, there will be approximately 2.9 million ATMs worldwide.

Retail Banking Research calculated ATM growth by interviewing local experts to determine the number of ATM replacements and new installations. “Replacements plus new installations equal shipments,” Charniauski said. China is located in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for more than half of all new ATM installations last year.

In China, bank and ISO orders are helping to drive ATM growth.

“More of China’s population are putting their money into banks, and the banks have to provide them with a way to access their cash,” he said. ATM prices in China are also less expensive than other markets because of the competition among manufacturers, Charniauski says.

“Over 10 manufacturers are competing in China,” he said. By contrast, in other markets one to five vendors may be competing for banks’ business.

There are major differences between the markets in the United States and China. The United States is a mature ATM market, where manufacturers are replacing existing machines. On the other hand, China is an emerging ATM market, driven by deployment of new machines.

Despite China’s rapid ATM growth, the number of ATMs per million people compared with the United States remains low. In the United States, there currently are 1,367 ATMs per 1 million residents compared with 157 ATMs per 1 million residents in China. “There are nine times more ATMs in the United States compared with China,” Charniauski said.

In 2015 there will be 407 ATMs per million people in China, and in that same year there will be 1,416 ATMs per million people in the United States, he says.

(Photo by Wesley Fryer.)