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WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Federal Reserve System predicts that its commercial check clearing volume will fall by 15 percent in 2005, coming on the heels of a 12 percent decline in 2004.

The Fed made the projection in the Budget Review component of its annual report.

According to a news release, if the volume were to fall, the Fed's commercial check volume in 2005 would be 11.8 billion items, down 31 percent from a peak of 17 billion in 1999.

Elsewhere in the annual report, a NACHA review of Fed data shows that the Fed's costs for automated clearing house payments dropped to less than 1 cent per item. The Fed also reports that in 2004 its commercial ACH volume rose 16.1 percent to 6.5 billion items, at a cost of $64 million - equal to 99 cents per item.

Meanwhile, the 13.9 billion commercial checks it cleared in 2004 cost $709.6 million, or 5.1 cents per item.

The Fed spent $24.3 million to process 234 million government checks (10.4 cents per item), compared to $5.4 million to process 940 million government ACH payments (57 cents per item).

More information on the Fed's payment volumes and costs is available at www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/rptcongress/annual04/ar04.pdf

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